NFL Betting Growth Expected to Nearly Flatline in 2026
The American Gaming Association projects just 0.3% growth in legal sportsbook wagering this season, with prediction markets like Kalshi cited as the biggest factor pulling volume away.
The American Gaming Association projects $29.5 billion will be legally wagered on the NFL season at U.S. sportsbooks in 2026, up just 0.3% from last year and a sharp slowdown after years of double-digit growth.
Why is growth stalling?
The AGA points to market saturation, with Missouri the only state to launch legal sports betting since 2025 as the wave of new-state legalization has largely dried up. The group cited prediction markets as the biggest factor pulling volume away from traditional sportsbooks, with platforms like Kalshi offering a large menu of sports-outcome contracts since last season. From last September through May, sportsbook handle grew just 4%, down sharply from 14% growth over the same stretch a year earlier.
How do prediction markets compare?
Analysts expect prediction-market NFL trading volume to roughly double this season, potentially reaching $36.8 billion, which would put it ahead of traditional sportsbook handle for the first time.
Sources
- ESPN: NFL betting expected to slow at U.S. sportsbooks in 2026