Lamar Jackson, Jesse Minter and the Ravens' real measure: a Super Bowl, not another MVP
Baltimore enters 2026 with a new head coach, the second-shortest title odds in football, and a quarterback who has nothing left to prove except in January.
John Harbaugh is gone. Jesse Minter is in. Lamar Jackson, coming off an 8-9 season and the first playoff miss of his career, is suddenly the centerpiece of one of the league's most ambitious resets.
Who is Jesse Minter?
Minter spent the past two seasons as defensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Chargers under Jim Harbaugh, the older brother of the coach he just replaced. Earlier he ran Michigan's national-championship defense. He's 41, has never been a head coach in the NFL, and was hired because ownership wanted a defensive identity to complement Jackson rather than another offensive mind trying to redesign him.
Did Lamar Jackson really pick his coach?
Not formally. Owner Steve Bisciotti made the call. But reporting throughout the search made clear Jackson was consulted at every step, and Bisciotti described his quarterback as 'a driving force' in the process. That's a stark shift from previous Baltimore coaching searches, and it puts real ownership on Jackson if the season goes sideways.
What are the expectations on Jackson specifically?
General manager Eric DeCosta called Jackson 'the most talented player in the league' and said the team expects 'a massive year.' But the public bar has moved past MVP voting. Jackson already has two MVP trophies. The remaining test is whether he can carry that level of play into January and finally deliver the franchise's third Lombardi Trophy. Baltimore has reached one Super Bowl in Jackson's seven seasons, and the 2024 AFC Championship loss to Kansas City is the high-water mark.
Why are the books so high on Baltimore?
Baltimore opened at +950 to win Super Bowl LXI, tied with the Seahawks and Rams for the shortest odds on the board. The bet is on regression to the mean. The 2025 Ravens led the league in DVOA on offense before Jackson missed three games and Derrick Henry hit a hamstring wall in November. A healthy version of the same offense plus a defensive head coach equals a contender, in the market's eyes.
What's the biggest risk?
Two things. First, the offensive coordinator search. Minter is a defensive coach, and his pick at OC will determine whether Jackson's run-pass split looks like 2019 (revolutionary) or 2025 (predictable). Second, the schedule. Baltimore drew a top-10 strength of schedule for 2026, including road trips to Buffalo, Detroit, and Philadelphia. There is very little margin for the slow start that doomed last year's playoff push.
When does the contract conversation start?
Jackson signed a five-year, $260 million extension in 2023 that runs through 2027. Multiple former Ravens have predicted the next extension talks won't happen until the 2027 offseason. That means 2026 is essentially a one-year audition for what could be the largest contract in NFL history. That, more than anything Minter installs, is what makes this season feel different in Baltimore.
Players in this story
Sources
- BaltimoreRavens.com: Eric DeCosta expects Lamar Jackson to have 'massive year'
- BaltimoreRavens.com: Storylines that will define the offseason
- ESPN: Three questions facing Lamar Jackson and the Ravens
- Athlon Sports: Jesse Minter reveals expectation for Lamar Jackson
Baltimore Ravens betting odds
Super Bowl futures, win totals & where to bet
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