AI Predicts Every Week 1 Game of the 2026 NFL Season
Touchdown Week's model went 26 of 49 on preseason winners. Now the picks that count: a projected score, win probability and confidence rating for all 16 Week 1 games, from the Super Bowl rematch in Seattle to Mahomes' return on Monday night.
The regular season opens Wednesday night with the Patriots at the Seahawks, a rematch of Super Bowl LX, and runs through Monday night's Broncos-Chiefs game at Arrowhead. Touchdown Week's prediction model has graded all 16 matchups using confirmed starters, the latest injury reporting and each team's offseason changes. The preseason record was 26 of 49, with exhibition games decided by backups. The regular-season record starts at zero here, and every pick below is locked before kickoff.
Wednesday, Sep 9
Thursday, Sep 10
Sunday, Sep 13
TB@
CIN
NO@
DET
NYJ@
TEN
BAL@
IND
ATL@
PIT
CHI@
CAR
CLE@
JAX
BUF@
HOU
MIA@
LV
GB@
MIN
WSH@
PHI
ARI@
LAC
DAL@
NYGMonday, Sep 14
Where the model is most confident
Four games carry a high-confidence rating. The Chargers are a 74 percent lean over Arizona, the widest margin on the board, because Jacoby Brissett starts for a rebuilt Cardinals team that may not have No. 3 overall pick Jeremiyah Love. Jacksonville is at 72 percent over Cleveland, where Deshaun Watson makes his first start in 23 months behind five new offensive linemen. Detroit is 68 percent over a Saints team missing Alvin Kamara and Jordyn Tyson, and Philadelphia is 64 percent over Washington after the Commanders lost Laremy Tunsil and Jer'Zhan Newton in the final week of camp.
The call against the line
The model takes Denver over Kansas City on Monday night, 23-20, at 52 percent. Sportsbooks have the Chiefs favored by a field goal. The case for the Broncos is simple: they went 14-3, swept Kansas City, added Jaylen Waddle and return Bo Nix healthy, while Patrick Mahomes opens with no preseason snaps and a knee that was reconstructed nine months ago. The case against is Arrowhead in prime time with Mahomes healthy. It is the closest call of the week.
The other coin flips
Tennessee over the Jets (53 percent) is a home-field lean between two teams that went 3-14. Buffalo over Houston (54 percent) rests on Josh Allen and the Texans' August injuries to Jayden Higgins and Braden Smith. Dallas over the Giants (55 percent) is about continuity against a debuting staff and a quarterback who did not play in the preseason, and the edge mostly disappears if Malik Nabers is fully active.
Picks that depend on one player
Several projections carry an explicit condition. Cincinnati over Tampa Bay assumes Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins play after limited practices. Chicago over Carolina assumes D'Andre Swift and Rome Odunze are fine after both left Thursday's practice. The Rams over the 49ers in Melbourne narrows to a field goal if the NFL suspends Puka Nacua before kickoff. Pittsburgh over Atlanta holds regardless of whether Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr. starts, because the pick is built on the Falcons' missing pass rushers.
How the picks get graded
Every prediction is published before kickoff and never edited afterward. Once a game is final, it is graded on the winner and on how far the projected margin missed, and ties count as misses. The running record, broken down by confidence level, lives on the predictions hub, and each game page shows the pregame pick next to the final score.